Thursday, August 07, 2008

The alternative-energy bubble | Steve Tobak's views on dysfunctional corporate behavior - CNET News.com

The alternative-energy bubble | Steve Tobak's views on dysfunctional corporate behavior - CNET News.com: "The magnitude of the shakeout will be proportional to the gap between market demand and supply. In the case of the dot-com bubble--which also included Internet and telecommunications infrastructure, fiber optics, and communications chips--the shakeout was huge, affecting the public markets by almost a trillion dollars. The nanotech bubble, on the other hand, has been largely localized to the VC community.

As for the nature of this particular bubble, I'm not sure if my crystal ball is better than anybody else's, but my gut tells me that we're already getting way out ahead of ourselves.

As bubbles go, I think this one's going to be big. How big? You got me. But I think that global warming, alternative energy--and solar energy in particular--like Al Gore are all overblown. The energy crisis, on the other hand, is real, but nuclear energy's the answer. And that's all I'm going to say about that here.

What does all this mean to you? It depends on your risk profile. If you're young, I say you need to take risks. Should a great opportunity arise with one of these companies, by all means, go for it. But if you have a good job with a good company, or you don't have enough working years left in you to take significant risks, I wouldn't jump ship for a hot solar st"

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